service · forecast package
Revenue to year-end, thirteen weeks of bank balance, plan against actuals — calculated from your bookings and recalculated after every close. The range is the measured error of the earlier forecasts, not a feeling.
The challenge
In many companies, planning is born in an Excel spreadsheet: last year's revenue, a markup, a gut feeling. That works as long as nothing changes — and goes wrong as soon as season, orders or incoming payments deviate from the pattern. And nobody measures how far off the estimate was.
The forecast package replaces the estimate with a calculation from your own bookings — on the same reconciled basis your monthly report comes from. Once the actuals come together cleanly, you can calculate forward as well: new after every close, with a range that comes from the measured error.
“A forecast that no one maintains is only a snapshot.”
three questions
Where revenue and result land if nothing changes — from the last months and last year's seasonal pattern, with a range that says how sure the number is.
The bank balance at every week-end, thirteen weeks ahead: open receivables on the due date plus the customer's usual delay, payables, payroll, running costs. The lowest point is shown with its date.
Budget, actuals and outlook on one line — per month and cumulative. Where the variance comes from sits next to it, not in a footnote.
how it calculates
Not a model you have to believe. The outlook is a calculation from your bookings, with three rules that are printed in the report.
Revenue and costs of the last three closed months, with last year's seasonal pattern once it exists. Every number traces back to the booking it came from.
At first the range is the spread of the last months, a quarter wider per month ahead. Once earlier forecasts have been measured against actuals, the measured error replaces the assumption.
Every forecast is kept and compared with the actuals after the next close. The error is in the report, and the next forecast uses it. Nobody has to maintain it; it can only get more honest.
The way there is the same as for every reporting chain: discover, build, test, rollout, operate. The honest comparison comes first — if the calculation doesn't beat your current planning on your data, we say so, and you keep your spreadsheet. How we work →
what it looks like
Muster AG is invented, the calculation is real: year-end with a range, thirteen weeks of bank balance with the lowest point, and what is left out — in one file you can open, print and forward.
What you get
for whom
Those who plan today with last year plus a markup — and only find out in December whether it was right.
Those who must see bottlenecks early, rather than discovering them at month-end.
Those who plan today from a spreadsheet and gut feeling — and reassemble the numbers by hand every month.
intro call
In the intro call we clarify the planning question that costs you the most — and the honest comparison: does the calculation beat your current estimate on your data?